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BILBoard Summer 2025 – Always wear sunscreen

From the brink of a bear market, US stocks have staged a ten-trillion-dollar rally, bringing record highs within reach. Summer is in full swing in the equity space, with easing tensions in the Middle East and hopes of Fed rate cuts boosting the mood. However,...

June 24, 2025

After the shipping surge: What’s next for global trade?

As the world grappled with the threat of tariffs from the United States, global trade experienced a dramatic yet short-lived boom. Now, as the dust settles, businesses, economists and policymakers are left asking: what comes next? When President Trump took office on January 20, he...

June 20, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Saturday 21 June marks the summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere. This is the day with the most daylight hours in the year and is celebrated as the start of summer in many cultures. However, despite currently being in the season of long days...

June 16, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

The short week kicked off with a thaw in trade tensions between the US and China as representatives from the world’s two largest economies met in London to continue negotiations. However, concerns rose again later in the week when President Trump told reporters that...

June 11, 2025

2025 Midyear Outlook: Going Deeper

A choppy start to 2025 When we published our 2025 Outlook, Tides of Change, we anticipated a year defined by turbulence—and indeed, the first half has been nothing short of eventful. A global bond sell-off rattled markets at the onset of the year, driven in...

June 5, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Published early, on 5 June 2025, in light of the public holiday weekend As ash and gas billowed from Sicily’s Mount Etna, some steam also escaped from the S&P 500, following its best May in over three decades. Stocks, bonds, and the dollar all retreated...

June 1, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Written 30 May 2025, In a week that was light on economic data releases, US trade policy continued to drive market sentiment. Midweek, the US Court of International Trade delivered a surprise ruling, deeming President Trump’s trade tariffs unlawful. However, by Thursday, a US federal...

May 26, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Last week, markets were caught off guard by President Trump’s announcement that he recommends imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU from June 1, stating that the talks with the EU are “going nowhere”. However, it did not take long until that...

May 19, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

There will be more fish in the sea for the EU following Britain’s agreement to open its fishing waters for 12 more years to EU boats, as part of a post-Brexit reset agreement discussed over the weekend. This agreement comes ahead of a London...

May 12, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Trade talks are moving forward, with a deal between the US and the UK announced last week, while China and the US have agreed to significantly reduce tariffs for the next 90 days. The US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to...

May 5, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Spring has sprung and as the green leaves return to the trees around us, so too did the green on our Bloomberg screens at the end of last week. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 recovered the losses that they had endured in...

April 30, 2025

BILBoard May 2025 – Staying the course

Waters have been increasingly choppy since President Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2. In the week following the announcement, more than USD 5 trillion was wiped off the S&P 500, the Nasdaq saw a 20% correction, oil prices fell below USD 60...

April 28, 2025

Weekly Investment Insight

Stocks on both sides of the Atlantic advanced last week, clinging onto some positive news on trade, even if concrete details are still largely amiss. President Trump’s comment that he had no intention to fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve also boosted sentiment, as...

April 23, 2025

The Gold Rush

In recent months, gold has experienced remarkable momentum, solidifying its position as a preferred safe haven asset. Contrary to what the collective imagination suggests, the first large-scale gold rushes date back to the late 17th century in Brazil, in the Minas Gerais region, at...

April 14, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Please note that the Weekly Investment Insights will be paused over Easter and will resume on the 28th of April. Easter is just around the corner, but this year there may be fewer eggs hiding in the bushes during Easter egg hunts in the US....

April 7, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

So-called “Liberation Day” has catalysed a global market selloff, with US President Trump announcing sweeping new US tariffs, including a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, effective April 5. “Reciprocal tariffs” on several countries were significantly bolder than markets had expected, ushering in new...

April 7, 2025

Market Update – 7 April 2025

The market sell-off following the announcement of new trade tariffs continues as investors try to assess Trump’s next move and the impact on the global economy. We do not advocate kneejerk reactions during moments of market turmoil. History has demonstrated that even after the worst...

April 3, 2025

US Tariff Policy Signals New Era of Protectionism

US announces higher-than-expected trade tariffs Market reaction was clearly risk-off but still manageable Uncertainty is here to stay. As with previous announcements, Trump could still dilute, delay or remove tariffs, with the floor open for negotiations Global financial markets entered a risk off mode...

April 2, 2025

BILBoard April 2025 – Tariffs, turbulence and tactical shifts

Written as at April 1 The first quarter of 2025 was anything but smooth. Market volatility surged, equity markets diverged, bonds offered little in the way of refuge, and investors were reminded just how quickly sentiment can shift when policy uncertainty meets geopolitical strain. This...

March 28, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Another week, another set of changes to US trade policy – and that’s before the April 2 deadline where reciprocal tariffs on several trading partners will be unveiled. The week began with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on imports from all countries that buy...

March 24, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Last week was dominated by central bank meetings, with the Fed, the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank and the Bank of Japan holding rates steady amid heightened global uncertainty. Only the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25bp. This was all in line with...

March 17, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

It’s St. Patrick’s Day, but the colour green has been rare on our Bloomberg screens over the past week, with trade frictions, growth fears and ongoing geopolitical concerns weighing on risk assets. Last week even saw key US indices, namely the S&P 500 and the...

March 10, 2025

Investors begin to get back their appetite for Europe

Written as at 6th March 2025 European equites have taken centre stage in 2025, defying expectations and outpacing their US counterparts. The Europe Stoxx 600 has risen by around 9% year-to-date, while Germany’s DAX has surged by almost 16%, with both indices hitting new record...

March 7, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

This newsletter was written on 07 March 2025. Last week, the euro reached its highest level versus the USD year-to-date, with traders anticipating an influx of cash into Europe’s defense sector. The European Government Bond market underwent a sharp uptick in long-term yields, particularly...

March 3, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Volatility on global equity markets continued last week amidst various announcements from the Trump administration, big tech earnings and a mixed bag of economic data. Last week was a busy one in the US political sphere. A budget resolution which could lead to significant...

February 24, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

German stocks started the week with a boost as investors welcomed the conservatives’ victory in the national elections. The hope now is that the conservatives will be able to form a coalition quickly. Protracted talks will delay long-awaited and necessary measures such as budget...

February 24, 2025

BILBoard February 2025 – Repainting the global trade system

When President Trump took office on January 20th, it was clear that tackling the US trade deficit would be a high priority. This is not only due to his frequent discourse on the subject, but also because the Republicans currently hold the slimmest majority in...

February 10, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

US equities ended lower last week, amid tariff uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration. While proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed for thirty days after the President spoke with their respective leaders, reaching compromises on border control, 10% tariffs on China went...

February 3, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

By Friday, it seemed as though a volatile week for stocks had ended on a positive note. The damage caused after Chinese AI app DeepSeek hit the financial markets like a cannonball, was quite quickly mended, with the NASDAQ 100 having recovered losses by the...

January 27, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Last week, world leaders gathered in Davos for the annual five-day meeting of the World Economic Forum. On the agenda were geopolitics, US-EU-China relations, climate and energy, the global economic outlook and much more. But what made the headlines was a little further away...

January 23, 2025

BILBoard News

BILBoard January 2025 – Snakes and ladders

While western New Year celebrations are already behind us, January 29th will usher in the Chinese New Year of the Snake. People belonging to that year are said to be intelligent and intuitive, with refined taste. They are considered creative and extremely diligent. For investors,...

January 20, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Donald Trump takes office for the second time this week and the new administration is sure to have a major impact on the economy both at home and abroad. Guessing games as to how fast and furious tariffs will be have been tangibly impacting...

January 13, 2025

Weekly Investment Insights

Looking back on 2024, it was a year marked by conflict and political uncertainty, but it also saw major advances in space exploration, the AI revolution making further inroads into our daily lives, and rising stock markets. After the final closing bell, major market...

December 27, 2024

BIL Investment Outlook 2025 – Tides of change

Introduction from our Group Chief Investment Officer, Lionel De Broux As the oldest private bank in Luxembourg, we’ve been managing clients’ wealth for generations, and we know that the best things are built over time. This belief seeps down into our...

December 20, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

Having spent ten straight days decked out in red, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index recorded is longest losing streak since 1974. Other global market indices turned crimson too on Wednesday, after the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts next year. But all’s well that...

December 13, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

It has been a big week for France, with Notre Dame finally reopening after five years of reconstruction, and Francois Bayrou being named France’s fourth Prime Minister of the year. Bayrou has received a lukewarm welcome and will now have to take on the...

December 9, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

December is here, and while the cold, dark days may not be everyone's cup of cocoa, the festive spirit is starting to set in. In Luxembourg, the holiday season kicked off last week with Kleeschen, when children woke up to find chocolate treats in...

November 25, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

After last week's disappointing Eurozone economic data, another ECB rate cut in December is high on the wish list for Europe, with investors increasing the probability of a 50 basis point cut. The euro fell to its lowest level in two years on the...

November 22, 2024

BILBoard December 2024 – Red Sweep

At BIL, we are long-term investors guided by stable, strategic asset allocation guidelines. However, our investment strategy itself is a living, breathing thing, proactively adapted over time, as we strive to deliver long-run performance for our clients. Certain times call for more adjustments...

November 18, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

Less than two weeks after the US Presidential election, Trump has made significant progress in nominations for top government posts, leading to some market volatility. The Republicans have defeated the Democrats in the race for a majority in the House of Representatives, making this...

November 8, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

Last week, the result of the US Presidential election was finally announced, with Donald Trump elected as the President of the United States for the second time. Even before all the votes were counted, bitcoin and US bond yields jumped, and the dollar surged...

October 25, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

Global trade has been a hot topic over the past week as the US election draws closer, and as Trump appeared to top polls in what is a very tight election race. Economists around the world are apprehensive about a potential trade war should...

October 21, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

During the autumn months, bears all over the world prepare for their winter hibernation. The market bears appear to already be asleep, with the current bull market broadening out last week, as evidenced by the fact that the Russell 2000 (which measures the performance...

October 15, 2024

BILBoard November 2024 – Beyond the US election

The race for the US Presidential election on November 5 is heating up, but business activity is essentially frozen given the uncertain outcome and the vastly different programs of the two candidates. With stability forming an integral pillar of our investment philosophy, we do...

October 11, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

Hurricanes caused widespread damage last week. In the US, Florida residents rushed to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Milton, which followed closely on the heels of Hurricane Helene, which hit the southeastern US at the end of September. Hurricane Helene is estimated to have caused...

October 4, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

Comments from central bankers toyed with both currencies and rate markets over the past week. The Fed Chair Powell said that the US central bank is in no hurry to cut rates, and that the goal is to adjust monetary policy “over time towards...

September 30, 2024

Weekly Investment Insights

Autumn is in full swing and with the change of season came a turnabout announcement that was noticed in all corners of the market. Beijing’s stimulus roll-out last week brought Chinese stocks on an impressive upward journey, recording their best week since 2008, with many...

September 30, 2024

BILBoard October 2024 – Harvest season

Executive Summary As autumn approached, we saw increased volatility on capital markets. Bad days were swiftly followed by significant rallies, and like the leaves currently on the trees, we had a varying mix of red, green, and amber on our screens. For the month of...

August 28, 2024

BILBoard September 2024 – The stars align for September rate cuts

August brought sky gazers a rare blue supermoon; the next won’t occur until 2037. It also brought what will hopefully prove to be a once-in-a-blue-moon market selloff, amid a perfect storm of catalysts. But while the skies darkened over markets, it became increasingly clear that...

June 21, 2024