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Analyses of current macro and market developments

September 15, 2025

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China’s stock market rally: Green shoots or a false dawn?

Chinese stocks have rallied, despite a struggling economy Much of the gains appear to be driven by domestic institutional investors, potentially reducing bubble risk Some of China's USD 22 Trillion in household savings could flow into stocks     Chinese stocks have surged this year,...

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July 3, 2025

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The clock is ticking on EU-US trade negotiations

The July 9 deadline by which US trading partners must have reached a trade deal with the US to avoid the “reciprocal” tariffs announced on “Liberation Day” is on the doorstep. Most of the 90-day pause passed with few discussions between the EU and US...

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June 24, 2025

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After the shipping surge: What’s next for global trade?

As the world grappled with the threat of tariffs from the United States, global trade experienced a dramatic yet short-lived boom. Now, as the dust settles, businesses, economists and policymakers are left asking: what comes next? When President Trump took office on January 20, he...

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June 11, 2025

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2025 Midyear Outlook: Going Deeper

A choppy start to 2025 When we published our 2025 Outlook, Tides of Change, we anticipated a year defined by turbulence—and indeed, the first half has been nothing short of eventful. A global bond sell-off rattled markets at the onset of the year, driven in...

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April 23, 2025

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The Gold Rush

  In recent months, gold has experienced remarkable momentum, solidifying its position as a preferred safe haven asset. Contrary to what the collective imagination suggests, the first large-scale gold rushes date back to the late 17th century in Brazil, in the Minas Gerais region, at...

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